As we enter into 2016, global capital markets have been volatile, continuing the challenging conditions that characterized much of last year. Although the global economy is still slowly growing, many bond and equity markets are being affected by a combination of factors, including several sharp sell-offs in the Chinese stock market, sinking commodity prices, soft economic data and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis.

In 2015, the unstable conditions led to mixed results for equity markets. The MSCI World Index registered a modest 0.3% loss for 2015 in U.S. dollar terms, including dividends. The Canadian dollar’s weakness against the U.S. dollar and other global currencies, however, resulted in a gain of 18.9% for the index in Canadian dollar terms. This performance reflects stronger results for markets in the U.S. and Japan and mixed results in Europe and other Asian countries. Similarly, the benchmark S&P 500 Index in the U.S. added 1.0% (including dividends) in U.S. currency, a return that was magnified to 20.5% when expressed in Canadian dollars. The well-diversified U.S. market continues to benefit from the country’s economic recovery, with improving housing and employment data underpinning business confidence.

Canada’s commodity-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index, meanwhile, was once again weighed down in 2015 by weakening prices for oil, metals and other commodities and lagged most other developed markets. As the price of oil fell toward US$35 per barrel, the benchmark index headed lower to finish the year with a total return of -8.3%. Equity index results for the commodity-sensitive emerging markets and Latin America were also negative.

Given the slow pace of economic activity in most parts of the world, most central banks are keeping monetary policy highly accommodative to growth.The U.S. Federal Reserve’s announcement on December 16 that it would raise short-term interest rates by 0.25%, however, was an important acknowledgement that the U.S. economy has substantially recovered from the financial crisis of 2008. Nevertheless, government bond yields remained muted and the FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index, a measure of government and investment-grade corporate bonds, added 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2015 for a gain of 3.5% for the year. The U.S. high-yield bond market experienced a stronger reaction to market conditions, losing 4.6% in 2015 in U.S. dollars.

Looking ahead, there are many reasons to be both cautious and optimistic about the strength of the global economy and the direction of capital markets. Two of the world’s largest economies, the U.S. and China, continue to expand and inflation remains low in most economies. The Fed has reassured investors that further rate increases will occur gradually, to avoid stalling the global economy’s muted growth. Elsewhere, central banks in Europe, China and Japan and Canada have taken steps to keep interest rates low and to stimulate their economies. While the fundamental economic conditions remain supportive for many global businesses, some experts warn that these divergent policies are likely to result in further volatility for investment markets over the coming months.

Although the headlines about volatile markets can be unsettling, it is important to keep the big picture in mind. Equity markets, in particular, are often subject to temporary ups and downs, but over the longer term, the general direction has been up. I continue to believe that a well-diversified portfolio that reflects your financial goals and tolerance for risk can help to smooth those peaks and valleys, as well as provide an excellent opportunity for building wealth over time.

The global economy in aggregate continued to strengthen in 2014, although the improvement, as has been the case through most of the current recovery, was uneven. After shrinking in the first quarter, the U.S. economy grew at a much stronger rate than expected in the second half of the year. While not as robust, Canada’s economy also registered encouraging signs of improvement during 2014. In other regions, geopolitical events such as conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, slower growth in China and the risk of deflation in Europe affected financial markets. Overall, the global expansion moved cautiously forward.

Global financial markets also started the year on a hesitant note, but benefited from improving economic trends and strong corporate profits through the spring and summer months. Most equity indexes were positive through the end of the third quarter, but volatile conditions surfaced in the fourth quarter as investors began to focus on the slowing pace of growth in emerging markets, particularly China. Concerns about oversupply in the energy market caused a sharp drop in the price of oil and other commodities, which was felt broadly across many markets and sectors. The price per barrel of crude dropped to less than US$50 at the start of 2015, the lowest since 2009.

Canada’s commodity-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index was particularly volatile in the fourth quarter, staging a series of sharp declines and rebounds. The Canadian index finished the three-month period with a loss of 1.5%, but registered a respectable gain of 10.6% for the year. The falling price of oil, which is a major Canadian export product, also caused the Canadian dollar to lose value relative to the U.S. dollar. The loonie finished the year about 8% lower at 86.2 cents U.S.

The MSCI World Index, which measures large and mid-cap equities across 23 developed markets, gained 5.5% for the year in U.S. dollar terms. Accounting for the Canadian dollar’s decline, however, this gain was magnified to 15.1% for Canadian investors. The performance of the World Index reflected generally weaker results in emerging and developed markets outside North America and the robust gains for U.S. equities. The benchmark S&P 500 Index benefited from strong U.S. economic trends, growing consumer and business confidence and healthy corporate profits, adding 13.7% in 2014. Again, Canadian investors in U.S. stocks benefited from the decline in the value of our own currency, with the U.S. market up 24% in Canadian dollar terms.

Turning to fixed-income markets, the moderate pace of global economic activity in 2014 meant that monetary policy remained highly accommodative to growth. Although the U.S. Federal Reserve officially ended the asset purchase programs it had used to stimulate the economy since 2009, central banks in Europe, China and Japan took steps to keep interest rates low, their currencies weak and their export markets competitive. Bonds performed well in this environment. The FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index, a measure of Canadian government and investment-grade corporate bonds, added 2.7% in the fourth quarter for a gain of nearly 8.8% for the year.

As we head into 2015, the global economy continues to slowly expand. Although interest rates remain low, there are some indications that rates, at least in North America, could begin to move higher in the coming year (well, at least that is what most analysts think, but only time can tell), which could be a headwind for fixed-income investments. Nearly six years after the financial crisis, equities have delivered generally positive results, but markets are cyclical, and it is always difficult to predict their direction in any given year. While the sharp drop in oil prices has weighed on the Canadian equity market in particular, it is important to remember that asset classes, industry sectors and geographic markets often move in divergent directions. Lower oil prices, for example, can be positive for other sectors as they strengthen consumer confidence and reduce costs for manufacturers, transportation companies and related industries.